Manny Machado Set Feb. 16 Deadline for Padres Extension Talks; Five More Years on Team Offer, $105MM

Manny Machado the Padres set a Feb. 16 deadline to offer him an extension that would mean he would avoid free agency at the end of the 2023 season, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego-Tribune Union. According to Acee, the Padres only made one offer to Machado two days before the deadline, offering to tack on an additional five years and $105MM to his current deal. That would take their total commitment to Machado to 15 years, $405MM. Machado plans to opt out of his contract at the end of the season, and combining the remaining value of Machado’s contract (five years, $150MM from 2024-28) with this new offer would equal ten years , $255MM deal.

According to Acee’s report, Machado confirmed in a brief interview that he set the February 16 deadline for the Padres in early December because “I just wanted to focus on baseball. So when the season started, I didn’t want to keep talking about contracts or the business side of things. I just want to focus on my team and the boys here and what our goal is – to win championships. So (Thursday) was our deadline, and after that it was just a matter of focusing on football, going out there and winning.” Machado’s interview also confirmed that he only received the one offer from San Diego, but did not confirm the reported terms.

Machado’s current ten-year, $300MM deal runs through the 2028 season, but has a player opt-out at the end of 2023. Machado confirmed yesterday that he intends to exercise that clause and opt out of the remaining five years, at $150MM face. his measure. That should come as no surprise, as Machado has been one of the best players in the game in recent seasons and at 30 years old is young enough and good enough to earn a long-term deal well above what was remaining on his current contract.

While his 2023 season will naturally play a significant role in Machado’s deal next winter, there seems to be a strong case for a bigger deal than the ten-year, $255MM deal the Padres offered him here. Machado is worth 11.7 fWAR over the past two seasons and has four career 6+ fWAR seasons. Compare that to his new teammate Xander Bogaerts, who signed an 11-year, $280MM contract with San Diego this winter. Bogaerts is a fine player, but he is worth 10.5 fWAR over the past two seasons and 2022 was his lone 6+ fWAR season. Of course, fWAR isn’t the deciding factor in contract negotiations, but it serves as a relevant data point to consider why Machado might see himself as worth more on the open market than a ten-year, $255MM.

Machado’s rebuild so far has not been without much trouble. The MVP runner-up in 2022, Machado has six All Star games, five top-five MVP finishes, two Gold Gloves and a Silver Slugger to his name so far. He is a threat on both sides of the ball, as evidenced by his career 124 wRC+ and 97 Defensive Runs Saved at third base.

With Machado’s deadline now passed, it looks like the open market will take off at the end of the season. As the free agent is probably not named Shohei Ohtani next winter, Machado appears to have a good chance of becoming the first player ever to sign multiple $300MM contracts in his career.

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