by There is already a discourse on what the Chicago Bears should do with the first overall pick. Before this, I shared personal agenda for the ideal situation. However, he ignored all other possibilities. Today, those cases will be explored.
Should the Bears trade Justin Fields and draft a quarterback?
Why would Chicago trade Justin Fields?
At first, he wasn’t drafted by general manager Ryan Poles or head coach Matt Eberflus. They don’t have ties to the quarterback and it’s unknown how either of them felt about him before the draft. Fields, who finished his second season, was drafted No. 11 in total. He is through 40% of his rookie contract assuming the fifth-year option is exercised and the team has made little progress on the field.
Through two seasons, the Ohio State product has completed 59.7% of his passes to go along with 24 touchdowns and 21 interceptions. In addition, he fumbled 13 times and scored 10 touchdowns on the ground. A porous offensive line, lack of skill talent and coaching turnover haven’t exactly helped growth but the franchise is left with questions.
Fields exploded in a handful of games this season. There is reason to believe that, in time, he could reach his full potential. What is not known is how Chicago’s leadership feels about Fields and the potential quarterback prospects. For that reason, it is impossible to completely rule out the possibility of them moving in another direction. If there was a clear upgrade at the available position, the Bears would likely go down that path.
Who might be interested in Fields, and what would it cost?
In this hypothetical, Chicago took quarterback No. 1 in total. One of the perceived top-three quarterback prospects (Alabama’s Bryce Young, Ohio State’s CJ Stroud and Kentucky’s Will Levis) is off the table, leaving quarterback-needy teams like Houston, Indianapolis, Las Vegas , Carolina and maybe Detroit and Seattle jockeying for. the available players. Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson and Fields fall into the next bucket of ‘high upside with baggage’, whether that’s a current clock on a rookie contract or a player with a long development road ahead of him.
The aforementioned teams that don’t land one of those three rookie quarterbacks could be interested in Fields. Tampa Bay and Washington are a few others that could be in the mix as well.
What would it cost the team to get the Bears quarterback?
There isn’t a long history of a prospect as naturally talented as Fields being traded two years into a rookie contract. A handful of veterans like Carson Wentz, Sam Bradford and Alex Smith were traded for a first round pick and a Day 2 pick well into their careers. Chicago isn’t likely to get a pick in the top half of the first round so it’s more likely they could get a late first round pick or a few Day 2 picks.
What if the Bears make the No. 1 overall pick? 1 to trade?
The No. 1 overall pick was not traded. 1 since the Rams moved up from No. 15 overall in 2016 to select quarterback Jared Goff. The first overall pick was traded one other time since 2000 — when Atlanta traded up from No. 2 overall to select Virginia Tech quarterback Michael Vick in 2001.
There have been some recent examples of teams trading up for a quarterback, but none of them are apples to apples.
- In 2016, Philadelphia traded up from No. 8 overall to No. 2 overall to select righty Carson Wentz from North Dakota. The Browns received third- and fourth-round picks, as well as first- and second-round selections the following year.
- In 2017, Chicago traded up from No. 3 overall to No. 2 in total. In exchange, San Francisco received a third-round pick, a fourth-round pick and a third-round pick in 2018. The Bears used the pick to take Mitchell Trubisky from North Carolina.
- In the Goff trade, Los Angeles surrendered two first-round picks, including the No. 1 overall pick. 15 in 2016, two second round picks and two third round picks. Tennessee also received fourth- and sixth-round picks.
- In 2021, Miami received a total of three first-round picks, including the No. 1 overall pick. 12, plus a third-round pick, from San Francisco in exchange for the No. 1 overall pick. 3.
Basic economics teaches the principle of supply and demand. When supply is low and demand is high, costs are also very high. About 10 are playing a game of musical chairs with three or four chairs, and the music has started to play.
RJ White of SportsLine.com took an updated trade value chart a few years ago and put 1,000 points on the No. 1 overall pick. 1. Total option No. is worth 695.80 points. 2 and so it should be easy to see the value of the first pick.
Since 2010, there have been 12 trades on the draft board in pursuit of quarterbacks. In all 12 trades, the team trading the rights to the quarterback received more compensation than the equivalent of the pick. On average, the team trading the higher pick received a point differential of +211.799, equal to the No. 1 overall pick. 23. In three of the 12 trades, the team moving up to take a quarterback returned a top-five pick in the following draft.
Here are some mock trade offers based on all that information:
- Indianapolis gets the No. 1 overall pick. 1 in exchange for overall selection No. 4, overall selection No. 35 and first-round selections each of the next two years.
- Houston gets the No. 1 overall pick. 1 and Chicago’s third-round pick in exchange for the No. 1 overall pick. 2 and a first-round pick in the 2024 and 2025 NFL Drafts.
- Carolina gets the No. 1 overall pick. 1. The Bears get the No. 1 overall pick. 9, overall selection No. 39, 2024 first- and second-round picks and a 2025 first-round pick.
Chicago can accept any deal it wants. When all is said and done, the most likely outcome is to keep the Fields for at least one more year and trade down. In that case, the franchise gets more time to evaluate the young quarterback. If that proves misleading, the Bears could likely draft a top quarterback next year when USC’s Caleb Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye and others are expected to be available.
The 2023 NFL Draft is scheduled to take place from April 27-29 in Kansas City, Missouri.
